Very interesting read and nice to see someone who understands where BlackBerry is headed. Smart Cars, smart cities, smart roads are a huge opportunity.
Having the world's best and most secure RTOS is something that will be used in more everyday items as the world continues to automate.
Cylance provides world class protection for all devices including computers and mobile.
In addition BlackBerry has many other valuable lines of business. Certicom, athoc just to name two.
Jarvis could be a huge product with the new rules and regulations for the software supply chain.
Unfortunately BlackBerry has a large number of amateur investors and a very small market cap and is easily manipulated.
Best thing as Buffet says is to buy and put it away - especially at these prices.
Antonio, can you shed some light on why Crowdstrike, a much younger company has been able to sell so much cyber security (they are booming) while BB with such a great product line is moving so slowly? Crowdstrike must have to deal with the same billings issues.
I've been long on BB for 10 years and it is frustrating to see us being left behind everyone else who seem to be thriving in today's environment.
Thanks for your comment, Wayne! So the way I´m looking at it is as follows:
1. I share the frustration you and DogMan express. I have to dig hard through the facts to see what is going on and I am somewhat tired of Chen´s inability to communicate to shareholders clearly.
2. Still, I see the company executing well and as it refers to cyber, Crowdstrike was founded in 2011 whilst Blackberry only acquired Cylance in 2019, so there is an 8 year gap there that may explain a lot.
3. Looking at companies like Tesla, Nvidia, Netflix and others of the sort, they all have 10year+ periods with the stock trading sideways, with the respective companies taking little quarterly steps to build great businesses. When I look at Blackberry, it looks to me like every quarter they adding to their IoT moat (especially in auto) and cyber seems to be coming along nicely - really boring to watch, but heading in the right direction. The combination should yield a spectacular business 5-10 years down the line, when most things are connected to the internet.
Great read Antonio! I think the new short squeeze theme among retail investors is creating unrealistic expectations of a stocks price action. If a stock doesn't run up 20/30% in a couple of months, the squeeze chasers label the stock useless.
Blackberry is still in the early stages of a transition from mobile phones to IoT/Cyber. I was very happy with the results overall, the foundations seem to be in place, the major goal is to create new revenues aggressively. With a good chunk of cash on hand and the 250 new hires, there is exponential growth opportunities.
I would love to know more about the structure of the Cybersecurity billings. With cyber being such a hot topic at the moment, I think investors were rightly frustrated about the flat guidance given for Cyber revenue.
Patience will really pay off on this play. In 2-4 years I strongly believe we are looking at a triple/quadruple up of the current share price.
Thank you for your comment, Dylan! I agree that patience is the name of the game here. I don´t really see anything that changes my long term thesis, other than the execution is a bit boring. Time will tell ...
Here’s the thing, two of them actually - and I say this as a big investor in Blackberry:
1) There is little reason to be invested in blackberry right now. They’ve provided guidance that the next year is meh. So? Why not go away and come back in 10-12 months. This bothers me as time is most opportunity.
2) The story behind cybersecurity is too opaque. We’ve had top notch products for a long time and Giamatteo for the better part of a year, yet they missed Q4 projections. You could argue that CyberSec is slow, but we have the Russian situation that should be booming sales….yet we guide modestly on bookings which may not even contribute to revenue Mountie 2 yrs out.
Thank you for your comment, DogMan! He is quite slow and I agree that the guidance is frustrating. I personally don´t time investments, so I´m happy to wait ...
Very interesting read and nice to see someone who understands where BlackBerry is headed. Smart Cars, smart cities, smart roads are a huge opportunity.
Having the world's best and most secure RTOS is something that will be used in more everyday items as the world continues to automate.
Cylance provides world class protection for all devices including computers and mobile.
In addition BlackBerry has many other valuable lines of business. Certicom, athoc just to name two.
Jarvis could be a huge product with the new rules and regulations for the software supply chain.
Unfortunately BlackBerry has a large number of amateur investors and a very small market cap and is easily manipulated.
Best thing as Buffet says is to buy and put it away - especially at these prices.
Thank you for your comment, RetiredandGood. Agreed - "buy and put it away" seems like the wisest thing to do now.
I agree with Dorman.
Antonio, can you shed some light on why Crowdstrike, a much younger company has been able to sell so much cyber security (they are booming) while BB with such a great product line is moving so slowly? Crowdstrike must have to deal with the same billings issues.
I've been long on BB for 10 years and it is frustrating to see us being left behind everyone else who seem to be thriving in today's environment.
Thanks for your comment, Wayne! So the way I´m looking at it is as follows:
1. I share the frustration you and DogMan express. I have to dig hard through the facts to see what is going on and I am somewhat tired of Chen´s inability to communicate to shareholders clearly.
2. Still, I see the company executing well and as it refers to cyber, Crowdstrike was founded in 2011 whilst Blackberry only acquired Cylance in 2019, so there is an 8 year gap there that may explain a lot.
3. Looking at companies like Tesla, Nvidia, Netflix and others of the sort, they all have 10year+ periods with the stock trading sideways, with the respective companies taking little quarterly steps to build great businesses. When I look at Blackberry, it looks to me like every quarter they adding to their IoT moat (especially in auto) and cyber seems to be coming along nicely - really boring to watch, but heading in the right direction. The combination should yield a spectacular business 5-10 years down the line, when most things are connected to the internet.
Thanks Antonio. I appreciate the feedback and will be sticking with BB for another five years I guess. I hope you are right!
Cheers
Wayne
So do I 🤞
Great read Antonio! I think the new short squeeze theme among retail investors is creating unrealistic expectations of a stocks price action. If a stock doesn't run up 20/30% in a couple of months, the squeeze chasers label the stock useless.
Blackberry is still in the early stages of a transition from mobile phones to IoT/Cyber. I was very happy with the results overall, the foundations seem to be in place, the major goal is to create new revenues aggressively. With a good chunk of cash on hand and the 250 new hires, there is exponential growth opportunities.
I would love to know more about the structure of the Cybersecurity billings. With cyber being such a hot topic at the moment, I think investors were rightly frustrated about the flat guidance given for Cyber revenue.
Patience will really pay off on this play. In 2-4 years I strongly believe we are looking at a triple/quadruple up of the current share price.
Thanks Again!
Thank you for your comment, Dylan! I agree that patience is the name of the game here. I don´t really see anything that changes my long term thesis, other than the execution is a bit boring. Time will tell ...
Here’s the thing, two of them actually - and I say this as a big investor in Blackberry:
1) There is little reason to be invested in blackberry right now. They’ve provided guidance that the next year is meh. So? Why not go away and come back in 10-12 months. This bothers me as time is most opportunity.
2) The story behind cybersecurity is too opaque. We’ve had top notch products for a long time and Giamatteo for the better part of a year, yet they missed Q4 projections. You could argue that CyberSec is slow, but we have the Russian situation that should be booming sales….yet we guide modestly on bookings which may not even contribute to revenue Mountie 2 yrs out.
So, ya, I’m pissed.
Chen’s plans are good, but he’s just way to slow.
Thank you for your comment, DogMan! He is quite slow and I agree that the guidance is frustrating. I personally don´t time investments, so I´m happy to wait ...