I think work like this, the time invested in a project like this should be commended. Thank you for putting it together. I have some strong views and criticism though as I believed it's been influenced by AMD talking points rather than actual fact gathering. My comments should not take away from the effort, they are words of a many years shareholder.
“I do believe that unless Nvidia shifts to chiplets, it will get disrupted soon.”
AMD has been telling the world chipsets are the wave of the future for years. Yet their performance in head to head GPU markets illustrates where they be: they continue to lose market share. You only have a better widget if people want it, and that has yet be proven in the GPU space.
“As Nvidia navigates the changing computing environment, I believe that it will be “forced” to default towards inter-connectivity in its products. “
Not a bold claim. Nvidia invented Nvlink in 2014 and introduced it in 2016, bringing production volume, high speed interconnects to market with P100 GPUs well before AMD had infinity fabric in a shipping product. Nvlink technology linked Nvidia’s GPUs to IBM’s “Power” line of CPUs 7 years ago. Today Nvidia is on the cusp of introducing the Hopper+Grace superchip. So when you say “forced” you’re using pejorative language to make Nvidia seem out of step or behind. They're clearly not.
Understanding of CUDA software stack is not exhibited here. No description of how it become ubiquitous or why competitors were sitting on their hands while Nvidia was investing here for more than 10 years with little notice. Now it’s everywhere and competitors are whining about a “lock” on the industry. That’s nobody’s fault but companies like AMD and Intel who thought Nvidia was barking up the wrong tree.
“Nvidia Omniverse enables organizations to create digital twins and this sets it to compete against Palantir, which is focused exclusively on the development of digital twins for organizations.”
Very cursory understanding here. Palantir is a data analytics company, Nvidia is an accelerated computing platform company. I can nearly guarantee Palantir is using GPUs everyday. What Nvidia is building in Omniverse is a Virtual Digital Twin for collaboration, duplicating real life down to the nut and bolt, Planters work is quite different from what I understand.
“is there a new feature in Nvidia ́s pipeline that can similarly augment the company ́s operating leverage without it venturing too far out from the hardware shores?”
Nvidia is building an AI platform. That is the value. The more it’s used the more value is created.
Your section 3 is a grand blend of buzzwords and apparent misunderstanding. You may have a valid headline but the argument and data aren’t close to backing up your point.
Section 5 on the other hand. Really good long term perspective on the company. Bravo
“admire Jensen and consider him to be a modern Renaissance man, but I cannot
quite read how he is thinking about moving down the curve of Moore ́s Law, other than
continuing to produce monolithic chips. “
Jensen has said many times improvements in SOTA acceleration will come from a combination of both hardware and software. A recent example is the open source chatgpt model released last week in conjunction with hugging face with 2B parameters (opposed to GPT4s ~1T). The model delivers very strong results at a fraction of the cost budget. And the idea of open sourcing these results guarantees creative minds all over the world will work on and improve it.
“I believe that Nvidia needs to Find an AI-enabling tool that does not sit too high up the stack from CUDA”
If you paid attention to their developer side you would see this is exactly what they do. They provide many tools and techniques to the AI community to allow the community to add the "finished goods" value. This is the same model they’ve successfully employed with Game Developers and the Professional Graphics Industry for decades.
Fantastic deep dive
I think work like this, the time invested in a project like this should be commended. Thank you for putting it together. I have some strong views and criticism though as I believed it's been influenced by AMD talking points rather than actual fact gathering. My comments should not take away from the effort, they are words of a many years shareholder.
“I do believe that unless Nvidia shifts to chiplets, it will get disrupted soon.”
AMD has been telling the world chipsets are the wave of the future for years. Yet their performance in head to head GPU markets illustrates where they be: they continue to lose market share. You only have a better widget if people want it, and that has yet be proven in the GPU space.
“As Nvidia navigates the changing computing environment, I believe that it will be “forced” to default towards inter-connectivity in its products. “
Not a bold claim. Nvidia invented Nvlink in 2014 and introduced it in 2016, bringing production volume, high speed interconnects to market with P100 GPUs well before AMD had infinity fabric in a shipping product. Nvlink technology linked Nvidia’s GPUs to IBM’s “Power” line of CPUs 7 years ago. Today Nvidia is on the cusp of introducing the Hopper+Grace superchip. So when you say “forced” you’re using pejorative language to make Nvidia seem out of step or behind. They're clearly not.
Understanding of CUDA software stack is not exhibited here. No description of how it become ubiquitous or why competitors were sitting on their hands while Nvidia was investing here for more than 10 years with little notice. Now it’s everywhere and competitors are whining about a “lock” on the industry. That’s nobody’s fault but companies like AMD and Intel who thought Nvidia was barking up the wrong tree.
“Nvidia Omniverse enables organizations to create digital twins and this sets it to compete against Palantir, which is focused exclusively on the development of digital twins for organizations.”
Very cursory understanding here. Palantir is a data analytics company, Nvidia is an accelerated computing platform company. I can nearly guarantee Palantir is using GPUs everyday. What Nvidia is building in Omniverse is a Virtual Digital Twin for collaboration, duplicating real life down to the nut and bolt, Planters work is quite different from what I understand.
“is there a new feature in Nvidia ́s pipeline that can similarly augment the company ́s operating leverage without it venturing too far out from the hardware shores?”
Nvidia is building an AI platform. That is the value. The more it’s used the more value is created.
Your section 3 is a grand blend of buzzwords and apparent misunderstanding. You may have a valid headline but the argument and data aren’t close to backing up your point.
Section 5 on the other hand. Really good long term perspective on the company. Bravo
“admire Jensen and consider him to be a modern Renaissance man, but I cannot
quite read how he is thinking about moving down the curve of Moore ́s Law, other than
continuing to produce monolithic chips. “
Jensen has said many times improvements in SOTA acceleration will come from a combination of both hardware and software. A recent example is the open source chatgpt model released last week in conjunction with hugging face with 2B parameters (opposed to GPT4s ~1T). The model delivers very strong results at a fraction of the cost budget. And the idea of open sourcing these results guarantees creative minds all over the world will work on and improve it.
“I believe that Nvidia needs to Find an AI-enabling tool that does not sit too high up the stack from CUDA”
If you paid attention to their developer side you would see this is exactly what they do. They provide many tools and techniques to the AI community to allow the community to add the "finished goods" value. This is the same model they’ve successfully employed with Game Developers and the Professional Graphics Industry for decades.