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$MRNA: Its SAM Just Doubled (Multiple Sclerosis, Epstein-Barr)
Weekly Semi-Deep Dive
Below follow some broad thoughts on why the new research on the Epstein-Barr virus presents a meaningful business opportunity for $MRNA. Just a reminder that the objective of the weekly semi-deep dives is to give you a more un-edited insight into my process.
Epstein-Barr is Likely Bigger than or Equal to COVID
As you may know, I like to explore areas of knowledge in which I think people are getting too complacent. Over the last couple of years, I have found myself reading up a lot about auto-immune disease, attracted by the general lack of understanding about it in the medical community.
Since the start, I found the idea that the immune system can attack itself for no apparent reason to be questionable and ended up diving into alternative material, with mainstream medicine being so dismissive of thinking outside of the box.
Authors like Dr. Terry Wahls and Anthony William (Medical Medium) shifted the way I thought about medicine, helping me understand that all disease stems from cellular malfuction - very much in the style of first principles thinking.
It is true that as biological organisms, we are composed of cells. For this reason, whatever goes wrong at the level of the organism must stem from cells not working properly. It thus follows that what we insert into cells (food) has a much greater impact on our health than we give it credit for.
Both Dr. Wahls and Medical Medium have cured patients of a broad range of auto-immune diseases following this principle. It turns out that by removing foods that are harmful to cells and adding foods that are beneficial to them, you can restore cellular function and eventually, overall health.
Specifically, Medical Medium has been saying for years that these conditions are caused by the Epstein-Barr virus (which debilitates the body through time) and not the immune system attacking the body. Today, research from Harvard support this claim with very strong data.
Around 95% of the population has EB, which in turn has many different strains. What I suspect is happening here is that different strains lead to different degrees of sickness. The more aggressive strains are likely to be leading to the crippling “auto-immune” diseases and the less aggressive ones to equally undesirable ailments throughout one´s life.
So the news is likely not just about Multiple Sclerosis, but about a virus that is likely causing a whole range of illnesses at scale. To kill it, a healthier lifestyle is a must, but mRNA vaccines can definitely help here. The SAM (Serviceable Available Market) for $MRNA is likely to double going forward, as the world begins to pull this thread.
$MRNA is 50%+ off its ATHs. Going long here implies that the above is true and that demand for COVID vaccines will continue at the current pace, which remains to be seen.
Whilst I am quite confident that Epstein-Barr causes widespread sickness and that mRNA tech can help solve the problem it presents, the demand for COVID 19 vaccines seems to be policy driven to a considerable extent. Hence, I see potential for a quick-sand like scenario, because it depends on governing bodies whose judgement I cannot predict.
At a PE ratio of 13.67, PS ratio of 7.9 and P/FCF ratio of 8.283, the stock does not seem to be dangerously priced, but I do not see an asymmetric situation as of yet. With $5.5b cash in hand and no debt, the balance sheet looks strong.
Further, I am of the opinion that viruses like Herpes and the Human Papiloma Virus behave similarly to Epstein-Barr. mRNA can help here too and $MRNA is ideally positioned to generate and capture value.
I will share more thoughts on $MRNA with you going forward.
Until next time!
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